What Could Still Cause Setbacks:
1. Targeted Elimination of Technical Expertise
- Loss of key nuclear scientists and engineers (though the document notes Iran’s knowledge base is now compartmentalized across multiple sites)
- Disruption of the SPND organization that maintains weaponization expertise
2. Comprehensive Cyber Operations
- Attacks on centrifuge control systems (like historical Stuxnet)
- Disruption of enrichment cascade operations
- Corruption of nuclear program databases
3. Critical Supply Chain Disruption
- Blocking access to specialized materials (maraging steel, carbon fiber)
- Preventing procurement of advanced centrifuge components
- Severing connections with Chinese and Turkish suppliers mentioned in the document
4. Internal Sabotage
- The document mentions Iran maintains significant operational security, suggesting this remains a vulnerability
- Destruction of centrifuge production facilities
- Contamination of uranium feedstock
5. Complete International Isolation
- Full enforcement of sanctions by China and Russia (currently providing economic lifelines)
- Blocking the $4.18 billion in cryptocurrency transactions Iran uses for sanctions evasion
- Shutting down the shadow banking networks
However, the document emphasizes that Iran has built remarkable resilience through:
- Indigenous knowledge and manufacturing capabilities
- Multiple redundant facilities
- Strategic dispersal of assets
- Advanced computer modeling reducing need for physical testing
The key insight is that temporary setbacks are achievable, but permanently eliminating Iran’s nuclear capability appears nearly impossible given their current technical mastery and infrastructure redundancy.
System D 